Eric Ham: Why a Democratic U.S. midterm win won’t guarantee tariff relief for Canada

Eric Ham is based in Washington, D.C. and is a political analyst for CTV News.

Official response and confirmed impact

He’s a bestselling author and former congressional staffer and writes for CTVNews.ca.

U.S. President Donald Trump has controlled all levers and levels of power in Washington with an iron fist for two years, upending the global economic landscape and alienating America’s neighbours.

Now, with the midterm elections just weeks away, Ottawa is watching closely in hopes that a shift in the balance of power might rein in the president’s mordacious attitude towards Canada.

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s trade negotiators and manufacturers would no doubt like to see — should the minority Democratic Party win back control of Congress in the midterms — a follow-up to the modicum of success they achieved with the passage of a series of resolutions calling for the repeal of Trump’s tariffs.

However, it won’t be so easy.

A split in power could lead to government deadlock, leaving trade in economic purgatory, with Canada isolated and locked out of the lucrative U.S. market for the next two years.

The opposition party’s ability to outmaneuver the majority for even a small victory in a Congress marked by polarization and entrenchment is a reason for optimism.